- September 9, 2025
Will Trump’s naval force invade Venezuela? Not likely — for now
But don’t be too sure that there will be a full-blown invasion to oust Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, similar to the 1989 U.S. military intervention in Panama.
Other options, such as an airstrike against a cocaine laboratory or a military base in Venezuela, followed by a Trump victory lap and a quick retreat, are more likely. Still, the odds are that this is all political theater for domestic U.S. — and especially Florida — political consumption.
The Trump administration’s stated reason for sending the flotilla near the Venezuelan coast is to combat Latin American drug cartels. The president announced on Sept. 2 that the U.S. naval force had just fired on a drug-carrying speedboat that was headed for the United States, killing 11 alleged “terrorists” from Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua cartel.
But the type of ships and troops deployed by Trump are not the kind normally used for drug interdiction operations.
“The size, nature and composition of this naval force is not consistent with what you need for drug interdiction,” Evan Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College who worked on Venezuela at the State Department during Trump’s first term, told me.
Analysts who believe Trump may be considering a land invasion or a hit-and-run operation to grab Maduro point to the fact that his naval force includes three Aegis guided-missile destroyers. In addition, there are at least 2,200 Marines, the elite forces specializing in land operations that have been used in Afghanistan and other U.S. military interventions.
Believers in an invasion also point out that the deployment of the U.S. naval force to waters near Venezuela is not an isolated event. It came after the Trump administration announced a $50 million reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture and declared Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles a terrorist group.
Still, there are even more powerful reasons to be skeptical about an imminent invasion.
Trump has stated time and again that he is against putting U.S. boots on the ground to fight in “foreign wars.” It has been one of his main campaign promises. He has not sent U.S. troops to Israel, nor to Ukraine, which are much higher priorities for his administration than Venezuela.
Trump may be sending his naval force to coerce the Maduro regime in hopes that a Venezuelan military faction will rise against the government in hopes of getting U.S. air cover. In recent years, however, U.S. hopes of a military insurrection within Maduro’s military hierarchy have not panned out.
My guess is that, in addition to intimidating Maduro, Trump’s deployment of the naval force was at least partly due to U.S. domestic political reasons: to appease many of his Venezuelan and Cuban supporters in Florida.
Many pro-Trump Venezuelan and Cuban exiles are unhappy with Trump’s massive deportations of immigrants from their home countries, some of whom had legal status and no criminal records. They say they never expected the president to deport their family members.
Many Venezuelan-Americans are also unhappy about Trump’s decision to allow the Chevron oil company to resume its dealings with the Maduro regime, which will indirectly pump desperately-needed dollars to the Venezuelan economy.
Miami’s Republican lawmakers who had lashed out against former President Biden for allegedly being soft on Maduro are now finding themselves criticized by many of their constituents.
They may have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to do something, anything, to show that the administration has not abandoned Venezuelan and Cuban exiles. Miami Congressman Carlos Gimenez was quick to support Trump’s deployment, suggesting it would help “tighten the noose” around Maduro.
In a nutshell, Trump has a menu of options. But barring unforeseen events, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this flotilla make a U-turn and return home once it fades from the headlines.