Trump’s trade war has ended his honeymoon. Will it doom his presidency?

Andres Oppenheimer

President Trump’s disastrous trade war, which sank the U.S. stock market and slashed most Americans’ 401(k) retirement savings, is eroding the blind loyalty he enjoyed from key supporters. His political honeymoon may be over.

I know, it’s too early to write Trump’s political obituary. He still has more than 3 1/2 years left in his term, and on Wednesday he backed down partially from some of his insane import duties by announcing a 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs to most countries except China.

He could reach deals with some countries to lower his announced tariffs and avoid a slump — although I doubt it, as lingering uncertainty over his erratic decisions will inhibit investments and slow growth.

But the fact is that some of Trump’s most powerful supporters in Wall Street, Congress and right-wing media are starting to publicly criticize him. They have lost their fear of infuriating their mercurial leader as the country — and the world — brace for a likely recession.

Elon Musk, Trump’s top campaign donor and White House cost-cutting chief, is opposing Trump’s tariffs increasingly more openly. On Tuesday, Musk called Trump’s chief trade adviser and tariffs supporter Peter Navarro a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.”

Earlier, Musk had criticized Trump’s tariffs by sharing a video of late Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman explaining the benefits of free trade.

Bill Ackman, another billionaire who had endorsed Trump, wrote on X that, “This is not what we voted for.” He said that Trump’s tariffs are the equivalent of launching an “economic nuclear war.” Republican mega-donor and Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone blasted Trump’s 46% tariff on Vietnam as “bull….”

Many of Wall Street’s most influential figures, such as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, warned that Trump’s tariffs will drive up inflation, slow the U.S. economy and weaken America’s global standing.

In the U.S. Congress, ultra-conservative Republicans such as Sen. Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell are distancing themselves from Trump’s trade war. Seven Republican senators supported a bill sponsored by Sen. Chuck Grassley that would allow Congress to have a major say on tariffs. Influential podcasters Joe Rogan and Ben Shapiro are beginning to criticize some of Trump’s policies. Shapiro said the president’s tariffs are “a massive tax increase on American consumers.” Rogan told his millions of followers that Trump’s tariffs on Canada and his vow to make it a U.S. state are “stupid.”

Growing numbers of Republican pollsters are warning about the possibility of a bleak future for Trumpism. The president “was elected in part to lower inflation and juice the economy. Higher prices and slower growth are exactly the opposite of what Americans voted for,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres told Politico.com.

In the meantime, Democrats seem to be waking up from their November election defeat shock. Large crowds of demonstrators took to the streets last weekend across the country to protest Trump’s firings of public workers and possible cuts in Medicaid.

And in places like Miami, Democrats are beginning to push back more boldly against Trump’s massive deportations — sometimes without due process — of Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans and Haitians.

Last week, the Miami-Dade Hispanic Caucus announced a billboard on the Palmetto Expressway between the heavily Hispanic areas of Doral and Hialeah criticizing U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and South Florida Republican members of Congress Maria Elvira Salazar, Carlos Giménez and Mario Diaz Balart.

The sign shows their pictures and reads: “Traitors to immigrants, to Miami-Dade, to the American dream.”

Of course, Democrats could spoil their opportunity to make a comeback in next year’s legislative elections by allowing leftist hotheads — such as Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Palestinian activists who fail to condemn Hamas’ terrorists — dominate the party. That would scare away moderate voters and help Trump keep a congressional majority in both chambers.

But if Democrats avoid such mistakes, Trump’s trade war is likely to do the job for them. Barring a major Trump retreat on tariffs, the U.S. economy will go downhill, a lot of people will lose their jobs, prices will rise and growing numbers of voters will begin to wonder whether Trump and his enablers are fit for office.