These two countries may be Latin America’s most endangered democracies

Andres Oppenheimer

President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Cuban-American Sen. Marco Rubio, is expected to pay significant attention to Latin America, especially to Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. But he may also have to deal with unexpected potential hotspots in Bolivia and Peru.

A new poll in 17 Latin American countries shows that Bolivia and Peru may be Latin America’s most fragile democracies.

The Latinobarómetro survey, which interviewed 19,214 people across the region, found that a stunning 90% of Bolivians and Peruvians say they are unsatisfied with democracy. Only 10% of the people in each country said they are “very satisfied” or “satisfied” with their country’s democracy, or with their respective governments, the poll shows.

By comparison, 63% of Uruguayans, 50% of Mexicans, 45% of Argentines, 39 % of Chileans and 28% of Brazilians said they are satisfied with democracy in their respective countries.

“Bolivia and Perú are fertile grounds for a populist leader or a dictator,” Marta Lagos, the Chilean pollster who conducted the survey, told me. “Both countries show a serious deterioration of institutions, to the point that citizens are desperately seeking solutions at any price.”

I’m not surprised by these findings. Bolivia’s economy is almost paralyzed amid a political fight between leftist president Luis Arce and his once-mentor, former extreme leftist president Evo Morales.

Both are leaders of the Movement toward Socialism party, and are enthusiastic supporters of Venezuela, Cuba and Iran. But Morales, who during his 2006-2019 presidency illegally changed the laws to remain in power beyond his constitutional term, is trying to run for president again in 2025.

Morales’ coca-growers’ movement has been blocking highways to protest a Constitutional Tribunal ruling that prohibits the former president from running for a fourth term. The Tribunal ruled that the Constitution sets a limit of two terms in office.

In addition, a prosecutor filed human trafficking charges against Morales on Dec. 16 for allegedly having had sexual relations with a 14-year-old girl when he was president in 2015. The girl had a child with Morales in 2016, according to a report by the state-run Bolivian Information Agency.

In the meantime, Bolivia’s economic crisis is worsening. Inflation reached nearly 10% in 2024, natural gas exports — the country’s main source of income — have fallen, foreign reserves have plummeted and there are growing electricity outages and shortages of fuel, milk, bread and other essential goods.

Only 6% of Bolivians say the country’s economic situation has improved over the past year, which is a record low in the region, according to the Latinobarómetro poll. More than 16 candidates are expected to compete in the 2025 elections.

In Peru, there are more than 60 presidential candidates — yes, you read that right — for the 2026 elections. Thirty-nine political parties have already registered, and another 29 have ongoing applications to field candidates, the daily El Comercio reported earlier this month.

The problem with so many candidates, both in Bolivia and Peru, is that most of them are centrists who are likely to divide the moderate votes among themselves. That makes it easier for extreme left or extreme right-wing presidential hopefuls with well-organized parties to win, which is exactly what happened in Peru’s 2021 elections.

Those elections were won by Pedro Castillo, a candidate for a Marxist party who has since been constitutionally ousted after he tried to dissolve the Congress.

Many of the political parties fielding candidates in Peru are fronts for drug trafficking or other illegal organizations seeking to benefit from the confusion, and to have representation in Congress, political analysts say.

I’m somewhat more optimistic about Peru than about Bolivia, because all recent Peruvian presidents — both from the extreme right and left — have respected the independence of the Central Bank.

Peru’s Central Bank has been run since 2006 by Julio Velarde, a respected economist who has been successful in keeping macro-economic figures stable. Thanks to that, Peru has maintained a semblance of economic stability, and has been growing at moderate rates. Experts joke that Peru grows at night, when its politicians sleep.

Another reason for cautious optimism about Peru is that 72% of Peruvians believe that the market economy is the “only system” that led to economic development in Latin America. By comparison, only 56% of Argentines and 62% of Mexicans say they agree with that statement.

But the new Latinobarómetro poll should be sounding alarm bells about Bolivia and Peru. If only 10% of the people are happy with democracy, it may be a warning sign of bad things to come.