Opposition leader says ‘millions’ more may leave Venezuela. She may be right

Andres Oppenheimer

The conventional wisdom in some diplomatic quarters is that Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro will cling to power indefinitely after rigging the July elections and planning to take office for a new term on Jan 10. But after an extensive interview with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, I’m starting to wonder whether Maduro is really as strong as many think.

I talked with Machado earlier this week via Zoom. The Maduro regime has said at various times she has fled to Colombia, or Spain, but she told me she is in hiding in Venezuela, and working non-stop organizing domestic and international protests ahead of Jan. 10.

Machado demands that opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who won the July 28 elections as a substitute candidate after she was banned from running, be allowed to take office on Jan. 10. While Maduro has never shown voting tallies to prove his claim that he won, the opposition published photographs and copies of the voting records showing that Gonzalez Urrutia won by a landslide.

Asked how she hopes to prevent Maduro from being sworn in for a new six-year term, considering that he has the army on his side, Machado cited several reasons she believes the Maduro regime “is in an absolutely weak, fragile, compromised position, and every day more so.”

First, she reminded me that before the July 28 elections, the consensus among political analysts was, much like today, that Maduro would easily win because the election rules were tailored to help him. Maduro had banned Machado and other top opposition candidates, poured massive state resources into his election campaign and controlled the media.

And yet, Gonzalez Urrutia won with a sweeping 67% of the vote. Never underestimate Venezuela’s opposition, Machado told me. Today, with the economy in a shambles and growing electricity blackouts, Maduro may be even weaker than in July, she added.

Second, Maduro is facing growing international isolation. A few weeks ago, Brazil vetoed Venezuela’s application to join the BRICS bloc of emerging countries led by China, Russia, India and Brazil. Maduro had eagerly awaited joining the BRICS, but Brazil’s leftist government blocked Venezuela’s bid, citing Maduro’s dubious July elections.

Meantime, the United States, Argentina, Italy and several other countries have recognized Gonzalez Urrutia in recent days as Venezuela’s “president elect.” In other words, far from looking the other way, a growing number of countries are increasing the pressure for a transfer of power in Venezuela. Their numbers are only likely to grow as we get closer to Jan. 10.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, there is a powerful reason that neither Washington nor Latin America will be able to look the other way at Maduro’s abuses: the threat of a new mass exodus of Venezuelan refugees if the Venezuelan dictator looks poised to stay in power indefinitely.

Already, more than 8 million people — or about 25% of Venezuela’s population — have fled the country since Maduro took office in 2013. And, Machado told me, “three, four, five or six million more” will leave unless there is a negotiation with the Venezuelan ruler that leads to his leaving office and allowing a transition to democracy.

That amounts to an economic and humanitarian threat to many countries in the region. President-elect Trump has made it his top priority to stop what he calls the “invasion” of undocumented immigrants (despite the fact that illegal border crossings have fallen by 70% this year.) Fears of a new wave of Venezuelan migrants are almost sure to keep Trump from ignoring Venezuela.

Summing up, I’m not sure that Venezuela’s opposition will be able to prevent Maduro from starting a new presidential term on Jan. 10. And I wonder whether Gonzalez Urrutia and Machado are doing the right thing in keeping hopes alive among Venezuelans that the opposition candidate will take office that day, risking widespread disappointment among their followers if that doesn’t happen.

But one thing we should have learned over the years is to never count out Venezuela’s pro-democracy movement. Time and again, it has demonstrated an unexpected resilience and strength that defies predictions.