Immigration and Election 2025: Three Key Indicators to Watch

Access online version of this press release HERE

Washington, DC — Below are three key storylines America’s Voice will be monitoring in assessing the results – and implications – of Election Day 2025 through the lens of immigration politics:

• How will immigration and the mass deportation agenda factor in Latino voters’ engagement and vote choice? As the New York Times explored this past weekend in “Anger Over ICE Raids Is Driving Some Latino Voters to the Polls,” immigration promises to be a key issue for many Latino voters this year, including for those animated by so-called “Kavanaugh stops.” In new Unidos.US polling of 3,000 Latino voters nationwide, among the relevant findings included that 72% opposed the recent Supreme Court ruling allowing ICE to “use appearance” as justification to conduct immigration enforcement, and when asked whether various immigration policies and actions “apply to you or your community,” the top choice among listed options was the 41% who said, “people fear immigration authorities will arrest them even if they’re U.S. citizens or have legal status.”

• Do Americans believe the Trump anti-immigrant campaign goes too far and is not what they voted for? Among the key points in the recent America’s Voice immigration polling analysis memo was the unpopularity of ICE and mass deportations, especially when details about how they are being carried out are tested. For example, the recent release of the 5,000+ sample American Values Survey from PRRI found that by a 57-41% margin, Americans said things were going in the “wrong direction” regarding the way “the federal government is dealing with undocumented immigrants.”

• Will media exit polling again confirm that a strong majority of the nation prefers legal status for undocumented immigrants over mass deportation? Another key point from the recent AV polling analysis memo was the finding that “Americans strongly prefer legal status for undocumented immigrants over mass deportation,” when asked head-to-head in recent polling. Past years’ network exit polls have found the same, including in 2024, when legal status for undocumented immigrants was more popular than mass deportation by a 56-40% margin in the National Edison exit poll (via CNN) and by 55-44% margin in the AP VoteCast election poll (via Fox News).

According to Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice:

“When it comes to immigration and the 2025 election, we are looking at three key indicators: how mass deportation and the anti-immigrant agenda has affected Latino voter preference; whether voters believe the Trump anti-immigrant agenda goes too far and in the wrong direction; and if voters think a balanced approach that includes both border security and legal status for long-residing undocumented immigrants is a better alternative than mass deportation. But let’s be clear – for many Latino voters in particular, immigration is currently less a question of policy and more one of dignity.

The reality of so-called Kavanaugh stops, heightened racial profiling and the daily barrage of cruelty and impunity that we are seeing in Chicago and too many other communities across the country are impossible to ignore. For many Latino voters, and other Americans motivated by opposition to the Trump mass deportation crusade, these elections will be a gauge of whether fear can silence people or whether communities will use their voices to demand dignity and a better way for their community and their country.”

Read the America’s Voice press release with key toplines on five key takeaways about Americans’ current immigration public opinion: HERE

Read the full America’s Voice polling and public opinion memo with five key takeaways on the public’s views: HERE