- November 7, 2025
Hispanics nationwide are abandoning Trump. Will Florida be next?
Don’t be shocked that President Trump’s Republican Party took a beating in the Nov. 4 state and local elections. Hispanic voters — crucial to Trump’s 2024 victory — are abandoning him in significant numbers.
Sure, the Hispanic flight from the Trump camp is slower among Cuban Americans and Venezuelan Americans in Florida, but the cracks are already visible.
In New Jersey, Trump won 46% of the Latino vote in 2024. But this time, Trump-backed Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli got only 31% of the Hispanic vote in the Nov. 4 election, CNN exit polls show. The Democratic winner, Mikie Sherrill, won by a landslide, thanks in part to the Latino vote.
In heavily Hispanic Passaic County, where Trump won by 3 points in 2024, Sherrill pulled ahead by a jaw-dropping 15 points. A Latino shift is also likely to have helped Democrat Abigail Spanberger clinch Virginia’s governorship.
And in New York’s mayoral race and California’s Proposition 50 vote on redistricting, Latino voters turned out in record numbers.
“I don’t think it was good for Republicans,” an unusually contrite Trump admitted a day after the vote. Trump argued that the Republicans lost because his “name wasn’t on the ballot,” and the government shutdown had hurt his party’s candidates.
But two massive polls of Latino voters released shortly before elections show exactly the opposite: They indicate that large numbers of Hispanics are turning their backs on the Republicans precisely because of Trump.
Trump’s approval rating among Latinos nationwide has plummeted from 44% in January to just 25% today, according to a new AP-NORC poll released Oct. 24.
“It has been brutal,” Eduardo Gamarra, a Florida International University professor and expert on the Latino vote, told me, referring to Trump’s loss of support among Hispanics. “These numbers are very significant.”
Polls show that the economy is the main cause of concern for Hispanic voters. Latinos blame Trump for failing to deliver on his campaign promise to reduce the cost of living and improve the economy.
Consider the optics: Trump is reportedly spending $300 million on a new White House ballroom and gold-plated bathroom features, even as he slashes healthcare services and government jobs. That infuriates many, especially Hispanics, who are more likely to be lower income. Increasingly, they see him as a heartless monarch — an American Marie Antoinette.
Gary Segura, a UCLA professor who helped conduct a Nov. 3 Unidos US poll of Hispanics, told me that many Latinos feel that they can’t make ends meet. “The fear of losing their job, the inability to afford increased housing costs, the increased healthcare costs…. None of these things have been alleviated since Trump took office,” he said.
Beyond economics, many Hispanics are deeply disturbed by images of masked ICE agents arresting hard-working immigrants — including more than 170 U.S. citizens, most of them Latinos, according to a Pro-Publica report — as part of Trump’s anti-immigration crusade.
“The scope, the breadth, the violence, the intrusiveness of the immigration and deportation effort have truly shocked many Latinos,” Segura added.
Many Latinos who voted for Trump thought he would target violent gang members and other criminals. “But more than two-thirds of the people who have been deported have no criminal record whatsoever. That has been a shock for many Latinos,” Segura said.
In Florida, the percentage of Hispanics turning their backs on Trump is smaller than in the rest of the nation, but it’s still significant.
The Unidos US poll found that just 31% of Hispanics nationwide approve of Trump’s job performance, but in Florida that number is somewhat higher at 39%. Still, as Segura noted, “Trump had greater support in Florida, so the loss of support isn’t as deep. But he has lost support in every state, including Florida.”
Do these polls mean Trump and Republicans are destined to lose the 2026 mid-term elections?
Not necessarily. If Democrats view New York’s Nov. 4 landslide for democratic socialist Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani as a mandate to swing to the extreme left, Trump will use this to bolster his exaggerated claim that Democrats are “communist.” This could help Republicans win next year.
It would be political suicide for Democrats to ignore the Nov. 4 victories of centrist Democrats like Sherrill in New Jersey and Spanberger in Virginia. That’s the path to take if they want to win nationwide.
Also, if the U.S. economy rebounds next year and consumer prices go down, Trump may still recover the lost ground among Latinos and all other voting groups.
But if the economy stays stagnant or gets worse and Trump’s popularity remains this low, Democrats are likely to win big in 2026 and, crucially, in the 2028 presidential elections. Things are changing — and fast.