Most Americans reject Trump’s deportations. Here’s why he won’t change course

Andres Oppenheimer
A new poll that has made big headlines shows Americans are rapidly turning against President Trump’s ridiculous immigration crackdown. But unfortunately, I don’t think that will make Trump change his mind.

Before I tell you why I fear Trump will not abandon his anti-immigration offensive despite growing evidence that it hurts the U.S. economy and destroys the lives of millions of people, let’s look at the numbers.

According to a new Gallup poll, a record 79% of American adults now believe immigration is good for the country. Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans wanting to reduce immigration has dropped to 30% from 55% when the same Gallup poll was conducted in July last year.

When it comes to support for Trump’s plan to deport all undocumented immigrants, only 38% of Americans back that idea today, down from 47% last July.

Obviously, many Americans fell for Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric during the 2024 presidential campaign, when he cherry-picked horrendous crimes by Salvadoran gangs to peddle the falsehood that most undocumented migrants are dangerous criminals.

Now, growing numbers of Trump voters feel betrayed: They expected action against violent criminals, but are witnessing the pursuit of millions who are good people who do the work that most Americans would not want to do.

Trump’s deportations are hurting construction, agriculture, the hospitality industry and more, while triggering a humanitarian crisis. Thousands of undocumented mothers are being separated from children who were born and raised in America, and who, in some cases, have served in the U.S. Army.

What’s just as absurd: Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” law earmarks $170 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) — much more than the combined annual budgets of the FBI ($12 billion) and the CIA ($14 billion). This is no joke: The U.S. government will be spending far more to arrest undocumented gardeners, nannies and farm workers than to catch mass murderers or foreign terrorists.

At the same time, the Trump administration is slashing tens of billions of dollars from government-funded research for cancer, Alzheimer’s and other diseases, as well as America’s foreign aid and pro-democracy diplomacy programs. Does any of this make sense?

Yet no amount of logic is likely to sway Trump, because his political calculus is that mass deportations are the issue that most unites his base. At a time when Trump world is divided — over releasing the files of late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and U.S. aid for Ukraine— immigration remains the one front where his supporters stand firm.

Trump also understands that in today’s era of targeted political propaganda, you no longer need the support of 50% plus one of the people to win elections. An enthusiastic 35% can suffice if your campaign manages to confuse and suppress your opponents’ sympathizers with disinformation to keep them from voting.

In the 2024 elections, the Trump campaign succeeded in keeping many potential Democratic voters at home on Election Day by making a huge fuss about relatively minor issues and discrediting Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

It successfully got many Americans to feel outraged over transgender athletes — a controversy involving fewer than 10 cases among 500,000 college athletes — while shifting attention away from the Jan. 6 assault on democracy, mass shootings with automatic guns or efforts to combat climate change.

According to the latest Gallup poll, the biggest shift on immigration comes from Republicans: 64% now say immigration is good for the country, up from 39% last year. Among voters of both parties, 38% now say they want immigration kept at its current level, while 26% say it should be increased.

This poll should be great news, if only it would lead Trump to change course. But he won’t. Keeping his anti-immigrant base united will remain his top priority, even if it unleashes economic havoc and tremendous human suffering.