Trump’s biggest threat to Latin America is not deportations, nor tariffs. It’s this

Andres Oppenheimer

The conventional wisdom is that President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and raise tariffs on foreign goods will create economic havoc in Latin America, but that his political impact on the region will be minimal.

I happen to think the opposite. Trump’s economic plans may not do that much harm to the region, but his authoritarian style and disdain for democratic rules may be used as an excuse by aspiring Latin American autocrats to say: “If the U.S. president does it, why can’t I do it?”

Trump’s economic plans include raising tariffs, or import duties, on goods from around the world by at least 20%, and on Chinese goods by 60%. He has also threatened to raise tariffs on Mexican products by as much as 100% if Mexico doesn’t do something to stop the flow of undocumented migrants, and a similar percentage on certain products from China.

“Donald Trump is poised to smash Mexico with tariffs,” the British magazine The Economist said in a headline this week. Former Mexican President Vicente Fox told me in a Nov. 7 interview that if Trump were to raise tariffs on Mexican goods by 100%, “he’s going to break us.”

In addition, Trump has promised to deport many of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants back to Mexico or other countries of origin. This would strain the already scarce resources of these countries, and reduce billions of dollars in family remittances from migrants to their families back home, economists say.

Many Trump supporters shrug off Trump’s threats as campaign rhetoric, and say that Trump proved in his first term in office that he doesn’t always do the things he promises to do. He never completed the border wall with Mexico, nor did he deport all the migrants he had promised to send home, they argue.

But this time may be different. Trump won not only the electoral college vote but also the popular vote, has won the Senate, and may win the House of Representatives by the time all ballots are counted. He already has a conservative majority in the Supreme Court.

In addition, the Supreme Court has recently ruled that U.S. presidents enjoy “presidential immunity” for official actions during their terms in office. For all these reasons, Trump will be the most powerful president in recent U.S. history.

In his Nov. 6 victory speech, Trump vowed to carry out his campaign promises. “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” he said.

“I will govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept,” he added.

And yet, his economic plans may not be the end of the world for Mexico or the rest of Latin America. On the contrary, they could benefit several countries in the region if he imposes 60% tariffs on Chinese exports, and 20% tariffs on Latin American products.

Mario Cimoli, a former deputy secretary general of the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, told me that “Trump’s plan to virtually close down China could benefit Mexico and several Central American countries, which could get greater access to the U.S. market.”

Regarding the massive deportations that Trump is promising to carry out, I’m skeptical that he will be able to do it. Most likely, he will reach a deal with Mexico’s president whereby she will take measures to reduce migration from third countries to Mexico on their way to the United States, in exchange for an expanded flow of legal temporary migrants.

Deporting millions of immigrants would create huge labor shortages in the U.S. agriculture, hospitality and construction industries. That would raise U.S. labor costs and increase U.S. inflation — something that Trump won’t want to happen during his term.

Trump has already received a congratulatory phone call from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Nov. 7, which the Mexican leader described as “very cordial.” There will surely be growing tensions with Mexico, but neither side can afford a commercial breakup.

On Trump’s political impact on Latin America, I fear his refusal to recognize his 2020 election loss, his open support for the violent mob that attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, injuring 140 police officers and killing several people, and his claim that independent media are “the enemy of the people” will encourage several Latin American leaders to become elected dictators.

What’s more, Trump’s friendly ties — and open admiration — for dictators such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un may further erode Washington’s moral authority to preach democracy around the world. Countries such as Mexico will have further ammunition to justify their support for the dictators of Venezuela and Cuba.

I hope I’m wrong on the latter point. But the fact is that Trump will have near absolute powers, and has already said that — after his former chief of staff Gen. John Kelly and other former top aides denounced him as an autocrat — he will only surround himself with firebrand loyalists this time around. An authoritarian in the White House who has already said that he would like to be a dictator “on day one” would be a terrible setback for democracy and basic freedoms around the world. That’s what we should be most worried about.