Irresponsible rhetoric, AR-15s raise fears of a ‘civil war’ after Trump’s shooting

Andres Oppenheimer

When a Marist poll in May revealed that 47% of Americans think there will be a civil war in the United States in their lifetime, my first reaction was to think that people are watching too many political fiction movies. But nobody should be laughing at such polls following Saturday’s attempt on the life of former President Donald Trump.

Judging from the first reactions after the shooting, political polarization is likely to escalate to dangerous levels as we near the November elections, at a time when the number of semi-automatic weapons in civilian hands has reached all-time highs.

There are more than 20 million AR-15 semiautomatic rifles in Americans’ hands today, up from 400,000 in the early 1990s, according to the Wall Street Journal. The AR-15 is the weapon of choice of America’s mass shooters, and was used by the 20-year-old suspected shooter who tried to kill the former president.

While AR-15s were banned for 10 years in 1994, the prohibition was not renewed when it expired. Trump has supported the continued sale of these weapons.

The first signs that polarization may worsen came only hours after the shooting, when U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, who on Monday was picked by Trump as his running mate, irresponsibly blamed President Biden’s rhetoric for the attack on the former president.

Vance did not delete his July 13 post on X, formerly Twitter, even after it was known that the suspected shooter was a registered Republican. Vance put the blame on Biden despite the fact that it was Trump who has exacerbated hatred in the country since he started his 2016 campaign denigrating immigrants and raising the specter of violence.

The former president has most recently said that immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of America, has raised the prospect of a “bloodbath” if he loses in November, and frequently praises the violent insurrectionists who took the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as “patriots.”

Also hours after the attempt on Trump’s life, Rep. Mike Collins, R-Georgia, ridiculously claimed that “Joe Biden sent the orders.” To his credit, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said on NBC, “We’ve got to turn the temperature down in this country,” much like what President Biden said after the shooting.

But I’m not too optimistic that cool heads will prevail. Both Democrats and Republicans are likely to portray the other side as encouraging political violence.

Trump’s entire narrative is based on the false claims that he was robbed of the 2020 election, and the dubious assertion that all the criminal charges he faces are because he is a political persecution victim. More than 60 courts concluded that Trump’s claims of election fraud were baseless, and even the conservative-majority Supreme Court — with three justices picked by Trump himself — didn’t find evidence to back Trump’s claims.

And the Democrats will probably continue campaigning by presenting Trump as the biggest threat to America’s democracy in recent memory. They will show videos of Trump’s own speeches, including those in which he attacks the rule of law, or incites violence by calling on his supporters to “fight,” or makes fun of the attempt on the life of former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband.

All of which brings me back to the Marist poll showing that nearly half of Americans fear a civil war in their lifetimes. It’s not the only one. A Rasmussen poll conducted in April found that 41% of American voters believe a second civil war is likely as soon as within the next five years.

I’m worried about the growing frequency with which I stumble upon the words “civil war” these days. A new documentary, “America’s Burning,” narrated by Michael Douglas, says in its official promotional trailer that “every day we hear that we are one step closer to civil war.”

I’m not among those who think there will be a civil war, but it’s time for America’s politicians to turn down the rhetoric and do something about semi-automatic weapons, because they are literally playing with fire.